The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows

Summary Notes

This could be the most rationally pessimistic book I’ve come across in quite some time!

Some weeks ago, I came across a short video clip from Lex Freidman’s podcast.

Lex asks Economist Steve Keen: ‘Can you advise young people who are in high school and college who are interested in a career in economics ?’

And Steve Keen goes: I say don’t do an economics degree!

Lex chuckles…

Steve continues: I’d say learn system dynamics, do a course in system dynamics that you can apply in any field, and then apply what you learn out of system dynamics to the issues of economics if that’s what interests you.

Steve Keen’s suggestion has really sparked my enthusiasm for exploring system dynamics and business dynamics.

I wanted to start from the oldest source available about business dynamics.

My quick Google search suggested: Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others.

I found the book in my local library and started to read.

Donella H. Meadows, a systems scientist and journalist at Dartmouth College, gathered a team of scientists to create a computer model. This model analyzes and predicts global trends in how people use and produce resources. Their results surprised many and started an important discussion about “overshoot.” This term means using resources more than the Earth can sustain.

The book ignites major economic questions that we all, at some point came across.

• What will happen if growth in the world’s population continues unchecked?
• What will be the environmental consequences if economic growth continues at its current pace?
• What can be done to ensure a human economy that provides sufficiently for all and that also fits within the physical limits of the Earth?

The authors took 5 major factors as the basis for their model. They called them, ‘Five major trends of global concern’: Accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.

And the conclusions they made from their model are not entirely positive.

The main conclusions of their study are as follows:

1. If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity
2. It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future. The state of global equilibrium could be designed so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his or her individual human potential
3. If the world’s people decide to strive for this second outcome rather than the first, the sooner they begin working to attain it, the greater will be their chances of success

The aftermath

As obvious as it is, people hated this book. Even a scientific article came out with the title, ‘Why the Person Sitting Next to You Hates Limits to Growth‘

 Newspaper headlines were cautious and somewhat misleading.

• A COMPUTER LOOKS AHEAD AND SHUDDERS
• STUDY SEES DISASTER BY YEAR 2100
• SCIENTISTS WARN OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE

Donella Meadows once wrote: “Our book was debated by parliaments and scientific societies. One major oil company sponsored a series of advertisements criticizing it; another set up an annual prize for the best studies expanding upon it. The Limits to Growth inspired some high praise, many thoughtful reviews, and a flurry of attacks from the left, the right, and the middle of mainstream economics.”

Not all wrong

Despite the book’s notoriety and its central premise, I believe it is one of the most important documents of recent history. It introduces a new and, importantly, a logical perspective on global trends. However, when a model is based on the entire world, some errors in predictions are inevitable. Even with these inaccuracies, this ‘world model’ is supported by highly logical arguments that remain relevant even 30 years later.

Some of them are:

• Food, resources, and a healthy environment are necessary but not sufficient conditions for growth. Even if they are abundant, growth may be stopped by social problems.
• The resources that permit the growth of that capital stock tend not to be renewable resources, like land or water, but nonrenewable resources, like fuels or metals. Thus the expansion of food production in the future is very much dependent on the availability of nonrenewable resources. Are there limits to the earth’s supply of these resources?

System dynamics

At the heart of this project, the authors unveil an exciting concept: ‘system dynamics,’ emerging as a fascinating byproduct that promises to transform our understanding about the world trends.

“Over the course of the last 30 years, there has evolved at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology a new method for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The method is called System Dynamics. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system has many circular, interlocking, sometimes time-delayed relationships among its components often just as important in determining its behaviour as the individual components themselves. The world model described in this book is a System Dynamics model.”

Outlook

This book may be one of the most significant works in the field of economics, particularly concerning business dynamics and behavioral economics.

After two decades, the authors reunited to update their conclusions. They emphasized that while the original findings remain valid, they need to be reinforced.

1. Human use of many essential resources and generation of many kinds of pollutants have already surpassed physically sustainable rates. Without significant reductions in material and energy flows, there will be in the coming decades an uncontrolled decline in per capita food output, energy use, and industrial production.
2. This decline is not inevitable. To avoid it two changes are necessary. The first is a comprehensive revision of policies and practices that perpetuate growth in material consumption and population. The second is a rapid, drastic increase in the efficiency with which materials and energy are used.
3. A sustainable society is still technically and economically possible. It could be much more desirable than a society that tries to solve its problems by constant expansion. The transition to a sustainable society requires a careful balance between long-term and short-term goals and an emphasis on sufficiency, equity, and quality of life rather than on quantity of output. It requires more than productivity and more than technology; it also requires maturity, compassion, and wisdom.

These conclusions are a thoughtful reminder, not a scary prediction. They give us a choice, not a fixed outcome. And it’s not a gloomy choice—it doesn’t mean the poor will stay poor or the rich will lose everything. Instead, it’s a chance to finally reach the goals we’ve been striving for through all our efforts to keep growing and improving.

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… It is difficult to speak of or to practice love, friendship, generosity, understanding, or solidarity within a system whose rules, goals, and information streams are geared toward lesser human qualities. But we try, and we urge you to try. Be patient with yourself and others as you and they confront the difficulty of a changing world. Understand and empathize with inevitable resistance; there is some resistance, some clinging to the ways of unsustainability, within each of us. Include everyone in the new world. Everyone will be needed. Seek out and trust in the best human instincts in yourself and everyone. Listen to the cynicism around you and pity those who believe it, but don’t believe it yourself.

Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jørgen Randers

Images courtesy: Featured image was created with amazon book cover image

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